Banner: Screencap of Hezbollah drone footage identifying an Israeli facility that manufactures guidance control systems. (Source: Al Mayadeen/archive)

In the week since the assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyah in Iran, fears of further escalation have reached new heights, with Israel now preparing for potential retaliation by Iran, Hezbollah, and possibly Yemen’s Houthi forces as well. If such an attack occurs, there is a high likelihood of them employing systems recently documented in Hezbollah propaganda videos, including drones.

Over the summer of 2024, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah have engaged in multiple rounds of attacks, including IDF airstrikes and Hezbollah employing drones and heavy weapons against northern Israel. These incidents have led to population displacements on both sides of the border, civilian casualties, and multiple forest fires.

On July 15, IDF fighter planes bombed two buildings near Mays al-Jabal in southern Lebanon, stating that they were occupied by Hezbollah operatives. The group launched missiles in response. On July 16, Israel targeted a Hezbollah cell in Yarine after the latter launched forty rockets from Lebanon at Israel’s Kiryat Shmona; that same day, two Hezbollah operatives were targeted in a drone strike in southern Lebanon’s Mansouri. On July 17, as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened Israel with new attacks, Israeli jets targeted Yarine again, along with positions in Ayta al-Shab and Alma al-Shab. The following day, Hezbollah announced the death of Ali Jaafar Maatouk, a presumed senior commander in the group’s elite Radwan Force. A Hezbollah drone attack was then reported in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights on July 20, hitting an Israeli army position. The deadliest incident occurred on July 27, when a rocket attack from Lebanon killed twelve young people in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights.

During an August 6 speech, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah stated that Hezbollah drones had successfully penetrated Israeli border defenses earlier that same day. “Our drones reached the east of Acre, even with Israel on high alert,” Nasrallah said, noting, “There were days Israel would down our drones when they were still above Lebanese land.” Acre is approximately 20km south of the Lebanon-Israel border; Israel reported drone strikes in Nahariya, located halfway between Acre and the border.

“The military operations will continue,” Nasrallah added, warning that “residents of the Haifa area should prepare for any scenario.”

Over the course of 2024, Hezbollah has ratcheted up its use of artillery and missile systems against Israel. On July 13, via Al Manar TV, Hezbollah shared a video showing the firing of ML-20 artillery against the Shetula village in northern Israel two days earlier. This seems to be the earliest documented instance of artillery employed for this specific objective. The ML-20 is a Soviet 20mm howitzer with a maximum range of seventeen kilometers. It is likely that that Hezbollah obtained it from the Syrian army. Having said that, this howitzer was in service in Egypt and Syria during the Six-Day War (1967) and Yom Kippur War (1973), and was only produced by the Soviet Union during World War II, so it is difficult to verify the ultimate source of the weapons platform.

In January 2024, Hezbollah targeted an Israeli army surveillance dome at Jal Al-Allam in northern Israel using an Iranian-made Almas anti-tank guided missile (ATGM). Army Recognition Group, a news source dedicated to security and the defense industry, speculated that the missile could have been the model known as the Almas-1. This ATGM is equipped with a combined television and thermal imaging guidance system, indicating an advancement in Hezbollah’s capabilities. Hezbollah footage of the attack also marked the first open-source evidence of the group employing a Non-Line of Sight (NLOS) missile system in combat.

The Almas missile models are a result of Iranian reverse engineering, derived from the Israeli Spike missile family, which was created and produced by weapons manufacturer Rafael. Intact Spike missiles reached Iran after Hezbollah captured one during the 2006 Lebanon War.

In June 2024, Hezbollah published video footage on Telegram showing aerial surveillance of Haifa, providing evidence of Hezbollah utilizing drones to monitor sensitive Israeli positions. The video documented several locations, including the Rafael complex, the civilian and military ports of Haifa, and Haifa Airport, pinpointing potential targets for future attacks. The footage was re-shared across pro-Russian and pro-Iranian Telegram channels.

According to the Haifa ports footage, Hezbollah employed the reconnaissance drone known as the Hudhud-1. These drones are characterized by their small size (1.20 m x 1.90 m), negligible thermal emission, and a small radar cross section, making detection, tracking, and interception difficult. The advertised operational range is thirty kilometers; this raises the question of whether Hezbollah infiltrated drone operators into Israel or relied on local operators.

Hezbollah also documented the use of these drones in a second video, this time in Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, which was shared on July 9 via Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Telegram. channel.

The Hudhud-1, manufactured in Yemen, can perform reconnaissance, while other models, such as the Hudhud-4, can perform vertical take-off and landing (VTOL), which changes its flight characteristics and potential battlefield roles.

On July 23, another video by Hezbollah claimed that a Hudhud drone flew over the Ramat David Airbase, located around 50 kilometers away from South Lebanon. However, there is a high probability that the drone shown is from the Samad series. The Samad-1 is an unarmed model used for reconnaissance and surveillance. Two other models, Samad-2 and Samad-3, function as loitering munitions.

Meanwhile on July 18, police in Germany and Spain arrested four people after receiving information about the purchasing of parts for drones from companies owned by Lebanese nationals. According to investigators, the companies belong to a Hezbollah-linked network that supplies the group with drone parts used in operations in northern Israel. Items, purchased by companies in Spain and other countries, include electronic guidance components, propellers, gasoline engines, and more than two hundred electric motors, as well as material for the fuselage and wings.

On July 19, the Houthis successfully launched a drone attack against civilian infrastructure in Tel Aviv, generating great concern over possible new attacks from Yemen.  The drone traveled a distance of around 2200 km and avoided IDF defenses, raising the possibility that Houthi drones could penetrate Israel’s renowned Iron Dome air defense system in the future as well. The Israeli army responded with an air strike on July 22 against the port of Hodeida, one of the largest ports on the Red Sea and vital for supplies to Yemen.

In their statement, the Houthi rebels mentioned the use of a new drone called the Yafa . Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari disputed this, describing the drone that hit Tel Aviv as a Samad-3 with a modification that increased its operational range. According to OSINT researcher MenchOsint, the drone likely flew undetected over Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt over the course of 16 hours before striking Tel Aviv.

Ruslan Trad, “Hezbollah videos document usage of drones and weapons systems,” Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab), August 6, 2024, https://dfrlab.org/2024/08/06/hezbollah-videos-document-usage-of-drones-and-weapons-systems/.