BANNER: Orekhovo border outpost, constructed by Belarus near the Ukrainian border (Source: tvr.by/archive)

Recently surfaced videos suggest that Belarus is constructing new outposts along its border with Ukraine, as they simultaneously conduct joint air patrols with Russia close to the Lithuanian border.

The current security situation between NATO and Russia is approaching a low point not been seen in decades. Due to its recently increased dependency on the Kremlin, Belarus is also showing signs that it will wholeheartedly support Russia in the current crisis. In December 2021, a surfaced video revealed a newly constructed new outpost on the border with Ukraine. It will be used by the Belarusian Border Service, yet it has a number of barracks that could host a larger number of troops. According to reports, the outpost is the first of three to be constructed along the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, Belarusian and Russian military jets were also documented patrolling close to Lithuanian border. These findings not only show the Belarusian regime’s increased interest in their border security, but also potential future military buildups, particularly on the Ukrainian border.

Initial news reports and social media posts mentioning the newly established Belarusian outposts surfaced on December 8, 2021. According to the news report, the new outpost will be used by the Border Service, yet it has a number of barracks that could host a larger number of troops. According to the reports it is the first of three that will be constructed on Ukrainian border.

The Belarusian Border Service is an armed paramilitary force that is much closer to military than their NATO counterparts. The sign of the outpost visible in the video mentions it is the Orekhovo border outpost, military unit 2187 (“погранижняя застава Орехово, войсковой части 2187”). The troops visible in the video were from the border group in Brest, a large city in the southern part of Belarus, where most of the ZAPAD21 military exercise took place last year. These details allowed the DFRLab to speed up the geolocation process.

The location of the new military outpost was found comparing historical satellite imagery of the area around the Belarusian town of Orekhovo. Between March and July 2021, an area close to the border with Ukraine was cleared for upcoming construction. By September, the first modular houses were already constructed; by November 2021, most of the buildings seen in the video can be identified in the satellite images. Construction of this outpost coincided with Belarus initiating the ongoing migrant humanitarian crisis along its borders with Lithuania, Latvia and Poland.

According to the Belarusian news report, the Orekhovo outpost was opened “after reconstruction on the border with Ukraine.” However, the satellite imagery contradicts this claim, as the area was occupied by forest prior to March 2021 and there was nothing there to “reconstruct.”

A comparison of the potential area with a bird’s eye view of the compound confirmed the location. The rectangular shape of the compound was constructed in a forest clearing, next to a long straight road. In satellite images taken by Planet.com in November 2021, the same buildings could be identified as well.

The new outpost was constructed only a couple of kilometers from the Belarus-Ukraine border automobile crossing checkpoint at Oltusch. The locations of the two additional outposts cited in the report were not mentioned, nor has additional information about them been revealed on official Belarusian websites.

On December 29, 2021, footage of Belarusian and Russian pilots flying Su-30SM multi-role fighters conducting their joint air patrol appeared online. Russia had sent their SU-30SMs to Belarus back in September 2021 to open a joint training center of the Union State, the Russian-Belarusian security alliance whose name has been used with increasing frequency by Belarusian and Russian official sources.

The videos and photos that surfaced in late December gave visual confirmation of such joint patrols taking place, serving as some of the first visual evidence of joint patrols along NATO borders since the deployment of the Russian jetfighters back in September.

Geolocation analysis of the footage allowed the DFRLab to confirm the location of the joint patrol. At least two SU-30SMs in the video were captured patrolling the border between Lithuania and Belarus, flying over the Belarusian town of Ashmyany, which can be seen below in the distance. Ashmyany is no more than 15 kilometers from the Lithuanian border. The SU-30SM featured in the video was fully armed with missiles, and can be seen sporting Belarusian markings can be seen. Russian SU-30SMs can be also seen in other videos that surfaced in December 2021, but this particular video was selected due to low cloud coverage, which allowed the image to be geolocated.

Newer footage suggesting continuous joint air patrol surfaced on January 11, 2022. Unfortunately they provided no geographic details that would allow them to be geolocated. Jetfighters seen in that footage were fully armed as well.

These findings suggested not only increased activity in terms of Belarus bolstering its border security, but also the potential for future military buildup on the Ukrainian border.

Lukas Andriukaitis, “Belarus strengthening its borders with Ukraine and Lithuania,” Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab), January 12, 2022, https://medium.com/dfrlab/belarus-strengthening-its-borders-with-ukraine-and-lithuania-cd0daf353a81.