Russian War Report: Belarus threatens to arm firefighters as military exercises kick off
The Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab tracks the latest Russian troop movements and Kremlin-pushed narratives around NATO, Germany, and more.
Russian War Report: Belarus threatens to arm firefighters as military exercises kick off
Image: Belarusian and Russian soldiers take part in large-scale military exercises in Belarus on February 10, 2022. Photo via Belarus MOD/EYEPRESS/REUTERS
As the crisis in Europe over Ukraine heats up, the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) is keeping a close eye on Russia’s movements across the military, cyber, and information domains. With more than five years of experience monitoring the situation in Ukraine, as well as Russia’s use of propaganda and disinformation to undermine the United States, NATO, and the European Union, DFRLab’s global team presents the latest installment of the Russian Hybrid Threats Report.
Lukashenka announces plans to arm firefighters as joint exercises with Russia begin
On February 7, the Belarusian state-run BelTA news agency reported that Minsk authorities plan on arming firefighters and other first responders working for the country’s emergency management ministry. They claimed these measures are taking place to “enable the Emergencies Ministry’s staff to engage in military operations along with the army in the event of a conflict.”
In a meeting announcing the measure, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka stated, “I have issued a resolution to determine that part of the Emergencies Ministry that we will provide with weapons, those men and women who will carry firearms… [I]f a conflict or, God forbid, a war breaks out, will our strong and reliable guys in the Emergencies Ministry stand aside? No, they will not only engage in fire-fighting.”
The announcement came days prior to joint military drills between Belarus and Russia, which are scheduled to run from February 10-20 despite concerns from the international community. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the joint military drills “psychological pressure,” while French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian denounced the exercises as “a very violent gesture.” White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki described the exercises as “escalatory.” Meanwhile, Lithuania and Poland, neighboring countries of Belarus, expressed concerns about the growing number of Russian soldiers on their borders, welcoming NATO reinforcements in the region while preparing for a possible influx of refugees fleeing the potential conflict in Ukraine.
—Lukas Andriukaitis, Associate Director, Brussels, Belgium
Additional footage shows Russia beefing up forces in Belarus
On February 8, a video surfaced showing Russian military units containing dozens of mobile pontoon bridges traversing a highway into Belarus. This marks a significant increase over the course of a single week. Initial footage of mobile pontoon bridge equipment first surfaced on January 31.
On February 9, photos of Sukhoi Su-25SM close air support aircraft surfaced at Luninets air base. These aircraft are believed to belong to the 18th Attack Aviation Regiment, deployed from Primorsky Krai in the Russian far east.
The following day, new footage documented Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems readying for deployment ahead of the joint military drills in Belarus. These systems are likely to be deployed in Brest Oblast, near the vicinity of Luninets air base. That same day, large convoys of Russian fuel trucks were reported moving along the M10 highway towards Mikashevichy, also located in Brest Oblast.
—Lukas Andriukaitis, Associate Director, Brussels, Belgium
Narrative about NATO provoking war with Russia trends on Facebook
On February 10, videos documenting the recent press conference held by French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin achieved more user engagement than any other current discussions referencing NATO in Russian. In these videos, Putin warned, “If Ukraine is admitted to NATO and starts returning Crimea via military means, it will automatically drag all European countries in a military conflict with Russia.” The two most popular videos garnered 51,000 and 270,000 views, respectively, as documented using the Facebook-owned monitoring tool CrowdTangle.
Putin’s statement was also amplified in a post on the Russian Embassy in Slovakia Facebook page, which garnered over 700 engagements, and received more than 1,200 engagements on the pro-Kremlin Facebook page Ya Vatnik • Budem Zhyt’. Footage of the statement aired on the Rossiya24 TV show “60 Minutes” and was later reposted on the pro-Kremlin page Vladimir Putin Today, where it garnered an additional 747,000 views. The post used the provocative headline “Ukrainian membership in NATO means World War III.”
The popularity of these Facebook posts shows the resonance among Russian speakers of fear-based Kremlin narratives regarding Ukraine and NATO.
—Nika Aleksejeva, DFRLab Lead Researcher, Riga, Latvia
Kremlin outlets and Telegram channels capitalize on claim that US will move embassy to western Ukraine
On February 7, Buzzfeed published a story about western Ukraine making preparations for an influx of refugees in the case of a Russian offensive. The story briefly mentions that the US embassy in Kyiv is looking to western Ukraine as a contingency plan, which the embassy would not confirm. Mainstream pro-Kremlin outlets and anonymous pro-Kremlin Telegram channels amplified the narrative. The Telegram channel First shared the segment of the article discussing the alleged plan, while the channel Legitimnyi, documented as having ties with Russian military intelligence, promoted the claim and accused the United States and the United Kingdom of continuing to escalate the situation. Legitimnyi also claimed without evidence that US allies plan to issue similar statements relocating their embassies and that doing so would damage the Ukrainian economy.
The First channel also seized on narratives blaming the West for damaging Ukraine’s economy. It argued that Ukraine destroyed its ties to Russia yet opened markets for the West. First accused the West of “amplifying the fake story of the invasion” and blamed Western media for “competing to provide the most absurd plan of a Russian invasion.” The channel continued by saying, “such behavior cannot be called a partnership” and is “likely a desire to bring Ukraine to an even bigger collapse, to benefit from it economically or geopolitically.”
This message was repeated in pro-Kremlin channels discussing rising utility tariffs. Some channels connected Ukraine’s increasingly frayed ties with Russia to draconian obligations to the International Monetary Fund. Others concluded that Ukraine has transformed into a “country without perspectives” with “the main function to be Russia’s enemy for the West’s sake.” The messaging aligns with similar anti-Western rhetoric that pro-Russian actors amplify across multiple mediums. This rhetoric is intended to sow distrust about Euro-Atlantic institutions to push Ukraine to restore ties with Russia.
—Roman Osadchuk, Research Associate, Kyiv, Ukraine
Pro-Kremlin media cherry-pick from comments to hype discontent in Germany
A statement from German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock saying Germany is “ready to pay a high economic price” for peace in Ukraine prompted multiple pro-Kremlin media outlets to publish articles claiming that she had angered the German public with her remarks. The articles sourced the claim to comments left on articles published by German news outlets Die Welt and Der Spiegel. As recently reported by the DFRLab, cherry-picking from an article’s comment section to portray broader public opinion as favorable to Russia is a known tactic used by pro-Kremlin media. The Die Welt article contained 2,599 comments, and the Spiegel article had 912, expressing a wide variety of viewpoints. Russian news agency RIA cited several untraceable commenters to claim Germans were angry at their foreign minister. Some media cited users but did not name them, instead referring to them as “ordinary Germans.”
—Roman Osadchuk, Research Associate, Kyiv, Ukraine
Additional reading:
Separatists in Eastern Ukraine push claims of Polish mercenaries in Donbas
The self-proclaimed leaders of the Ukrainian breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as state-controlled media in Russia, began pushing claims this week about the arrival of Polish mercenaries in eastern Ukraine. This comes in response to the Polish government approving a plan to provide military assistance to Ukraine. On February 7, the so-called people’s police of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) asserted that two groups of Polish mercenaries had appeared in Ukraine-controlled areas of Donbas. DNR separatist leaders claimed that their intelligence confirmed the presence of around twenty Polish mercenaries near the village of Popasna. They alleged that Polish mercenaries were working with Ukrainian forces to conduct terrorist acts and sabotage the self-proclaimed republics. DNR leaders also claimed that Polish mercenaries would try to damage civilian infrastructure in the region to trigger a response from DNR military units, thus completing their objective of pushing the Donbas region into a war. Before the emergence of these allegations, separatist leaders of the Luhansk People’s Republic in Eastern Ukraine also claimed that mercenaries from the US private military company Academi (formerly Blackwater) were present in Donbas.
The Ukrainian Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security promptly denied the presence of foreign mercenaries on Ukrainian territory. It stated that representatives of NATO countries are invited to Ukraine as instructors only and work in educational centers, adding that only Ukrainian forces are “fighting for Ukraine.”
Poland’s decision to supply weapons to Ukraine also sparked Russia to suggest suspending Poland’s membership in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Olga Kovitidi, a member of the Russian delegation to the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly and member of the Russian Federation Council, claimed that Poland’s decision to ship weapons to Ukraine violates the Helsinki Final Act, a foundational document of the OSCE. She stated that it should become the basis for opening discussion about revoking Poland’s chairmanship of OSCE and suspending it from the organization. Poland took over as OSCE chair in January.
—Givi Gigitashvili, DFRLab research assistant, Warsaw, Poland.
Belarus raises possibility of recognizing breakaway territories in Georgia
On February 7, in an interview with Russian media figure Vladimir Solovyov, Lukashenka said that he has not ruled out recognizing the breakaway Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent nations and reaffirmed his stance that Russian-annexed Crimea is officially part of Russia. He posed the question as to whether there was “some kind of vital necessity” for recognizing the independence of the Georgian regions.
The Foreign Ministry of Abkhazia applauded Lukashenka’s statement and expressed Abkhazia’s readiness for an open dialogue with “Russia-friendly states.” It also said that Abkhazia is interested in establishing formal relations with Belarus. It expressed its hope that Belarus will follow the example of its strategic ally Russia in supporting Abkhazia’s chosen course of “forming a free and independent state.”
Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov responded to Lukashenka’s statement, saying that that Lukashenka is fully aware of the situation and Moscow sees no need in sending signals to Minsk. “There are the states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia recognized by the Russian Federation, we have diplomatic relations with them,” Peskov said. “And there is the Russian region of Crimea; it is an integral part of the Russian Federation.”
Russia recognized the independence of the two Georgian regions in 2008, shortly after the end of the war between Georgia and Russia that August. Besides Russia, only four countries—Nicaragua, Syria, Venezuela, and Nauru—recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
—Sopo Gelava, Research Associate, Tbilisi, Georgia
Pro-Kremlin media amplify anti-NATO comments by China
Kremlin-controlled media amplified a February 8 statement made by the Chinese mission to the European Union, which said that NATO expansion “is not conducive to global security and stability” and that “NATO is a Cold War remnant.”
Days earlier, on February 4, Putin met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and released a joint statement expressing their opposition to any further expansion of NATO. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg responded: “We must not return to spheres of influence where big powers tell others what they can and cannot do.”
Pro-Kremlin media like Vzglyad, MK.ru, 360tv, Izvestiya, RIA FAN, Pravda.ru, 5 TV, Gazeta, and Russkaya Vesna covered the subsequent statement by the Chinese mission to the EU. Other pro-Kremlin media outlets like Voennoe Oboznerine, Life.ru, Svobodnaya Pressa, Lenta, and Tsargrad spun the statement to suggest that the NATO alliance is “useless,” as it does not contribute to global peace and security. Meanwhile, additional coverage by Komsomolyskaya Pravda, Gazeta, and Pravda.ru emphasized China’s statement that “NATO is a Cold War remnant,” with Pravda.ru adding that “it is time to dismiss” the NATO alliance.
—Nika Aleksejeva, DFRLab Lead Researcher, Riga, Latvia
Russian outlet talks of possible new Russian military presence in Nicaragua
Citing “comments of high-ranking Russian officials,” pro-Kremlin online outlet Tsargrad wrote about the possibility of a permanent Russian military presence in Latin America—or as Tsargrad described it, the “backyard of the United States.” According to the outlet, the Kremlin appears to be taking “asymmetric retaliatory measures” in Latin America as a response to US support of Ukraine. The article cited Russian Ambassador to Nicaragua Alexandr Khokholikov, who the outlet claimed had talked “as a fact about legal presence of Russian military specialists” in Nicaragua.
Based on Khokholikov’s comments, RIA also wrote about Russia’s readiness to respond to new requests coming from Central American countries in a timely manner and support them in the “implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects.”
—Eto Buziashvili, Research Associate, Tbilisi, Georgia
